Book: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction



On the face of it, this book is an interesting read about predicting the future, how we humans tend to do it really badly (even those of us who’s job it is to do so), and an account of a set of people setting out to do better and how they approach that.  It’s a good book, and if any part of your job involves attempting to guess how something will pan out (for example, how long something might take) then it’s worth a read – both for advice on what and what not to do.

I accidentally ended up (re-)reading this in conjunction with another book, Black Box Thinking, and a lot of the rational-thinking advice overlaps heavily – for example on creating short feedback loops.  In addition, this book talks more precisely about being careful to measure yourself and (especially useful in the modern day) actively looking for information and sources of information that are new and different from that you have.

Light enough to be a pretty easy-going read.  Enough technical guts and applicable ideas to be useful and worthy of study and actions.  I recommend it.


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